The Clash Between Vladdy and Rodón: Why ALDS Game 3 Hinges on This Duel
Before Vladimir Guerrero Jr. launched a home run on his very first swing of ALDS Game 3 off Carlos Rodón, this matchup was already the most captivating storyline of the series. But here’s where it gets controversial: despite Rodón’s reputation as a top-tier lefty, he has never struck out Guerrero in 21 career encounters. Zero. Not once.
Let’s break down why this is so remarkable. Guerrero boasts an incredible .588 batting average, a .667 on-base percentage, and a staggering .941 slugging percentage against Rodón. He’s reached base 14 times in those 21 plate appearances, including 10 hits and 4 walks, while only swinging and missing four times out of 78 pitches. Even more striking is how rarely Guerrero has found himself in a two-strike count against Rodón—just 19% of pitches, compared to Rodón’s 31% two-strike rate overall this season. Simply put, it’s been a struggle for Rodón to even get Guerrero into a deep count.
Most of these encounters have taken place at Rogers Centre, where Guerrero has dominated, but the story holds true at Yankee Stadium too. In six plate appearances there, Guerrero has never failed to reach base—two walks, four hits, including a memorable home run. This consistency across venues underscores the unique challenge Rodón faces.
Here’s a bold fact: Rodón is the only pitcher Guerrero has faced more than 16 times without ever striking him out. Conversely, Guerrero is the only batter Rodón has faced at least 15 times without a single strikeout. This is highly unusual for both players and raises the question—how has Guerrero managed this?
The answer isn’t just luck, though some of it might be. Guerrero’s expected batting average (xBA) against Rodón is .392, which is excellent but still well below his actual .588 average. This suggests some fortunate batted ball outcomes, like bloopers turning into doubles. But avoiding strikeouts altogether? That’s not something you can chalk up to luck. It points to a deeper skill or approach.
Now, a quick reality check: pitcher-versus-batter stats rarely predict future outcomes reliably. It’s nearly impossible for a pitcher to face the same batter enough times for the data to be truly meaningful, and players evolve over time. What’s happened in the past doesn’t guarantee what will happen next. But the fact remains—one of the most powerful left-handed pitchers in the game has yet to record a single strikeout against one of the most formidable power hitters of his generation.
Guerrero isn’t immune to strikeouts—he’s struck out over 90 times in each of his full seasons. Others have managed to get him out via strikeout; for example, Lance Lynn struck him out seven times in 21 matchups. So why not Rodón?
Let’s dive into how Rodón has pitched to Guerrero and why it hasn’t worked so far.
Vladdy’s Bat Speed Against Rodón Is Lightning Fast
While we don’t have a direct metric for how well a batter sees a pitcher's release point, we can infer some things from bat speed data. This season, Guerrero has faced 25 pitchers at least 20 times, including elite arms like Jacob deGrom and Garrett Crochet. His bat speed against these pitchers ranges from 73.5 mph to 80.2 mph. Higher bat speed often indicates better timing, confidence, and contact quality.
Among these pitchers, the top three against whom Guerrero’s bat speed has been fastest are:
- Ian Seymour (80.2 mph)
- Zack Littell (80.1 mph)
- Carlos Rodón (79.0 mph)
What’s fascinating is that Guerrero has not struck out against Seymour or Littell either, and combined with Rodón, that’s 38 plate appearances with a .500/.605/.800 slash line and zero strikeouts. This suggests Guerrero’s timing and contact quality against these pitchers is exceptional.
When Guerrero’s bat speed hits 79 mph or higher, he’s crushing the ball, hitting .363 with a .708 slugging percentage this season, including the playoffs. When his bat speed drops below that, his numbers dip to a .289 average and .412 slugging. This shows how critical his timing and confidence are. Even for a player known for one of the fastest bats in baseball, getting that “A-swing” off makes a huge difference.
Rodón’s Best Swing-and-Miss Pitches Don’t Fool Guerrero
Rodón is famous for his power fastball, but his slider and changeup are his most effective pitches for generating swings and misses against right-handed hitters, with whiff rates of 38% and 35% respectively this year. Yet, against Guerrero, Rodón has thrown 30 sliders and changeups combined, inducing 13 swings but only one miss—a foul tip on a hanging slider in 2024. Guerrero still managed to single on the very next pitch.
Why? Most of these pitches have been outside the strike zone—only 40% were in the zone—and Guerrero has been disciplined, swinging at just 2 of 18 out-of-zone pitches. That’s an 11% chase rate, far below Rodón’s usual 33% against righties on these pitches. It’s clear Guerrero is reading Rodón’s off-speed stuff well and refusing to chase bad pitches.
Watch for Rodón’s First-Pitch Strategy
Rodón has shifted his approach this year, mixing in more sinkers and changeups, but when starting Guerrero, he’s stuck to four-seam fastballs and changeups—none of which have been in the strike zone. Guerrero hasn’t swung at any of these first pitches, which has led to him being ahead 1-0 in all six matchups this year. Being ahead early in the count puts Guerrero in a strong position to be selective and wait for a pitch he can drive.
This change in approach makes sense—Rodón’s previous tactics weren’t working—but ironically, the new strategy hasn’t cracked Guerrero’s code either.
A Final Thought: Can Rodón Break Through in Game 3?
Rodón remains one of the premier left-handed pitchers in baseball. Just because he hasn’t dominated Guerrero yet doesn’t mean he can’t. But until he records that elusive strikeout, the narrative stays the same. One strikeout could be the turning point in this intense duel.
So here’s a question for you: Do you think Rodón can finally figure out Guerrero in Game 3, or is this matchup destined to keep favoring the batter? Is Guerrero’s success a sign of a unique skill set, or is Rodón simply due for a breakthrough? Share your thoughts below—this is one debate that’s far from settled!
